The Food Shock Ahead: War, Fertilizers and Climate Change Could Drive Global Food Prices

Key insights

• Multiple shocks are converging on the global food system, including the Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, and rising fossil fuel costs.
• Fertilizers and pesticides are tightly linked to energy supplies, with Gulf and Russian inputs central to production; disruptions threaten food availability and prices.
• Biofuel policies, dietary shifts, and smarter farming practices offer pathways to resilience but require coordinated policy and investment.
• National stockpiles, just-in-case food systems, and support for the poorest households will be essential during a protracted crisis.

Introduction

The episode begins with a stark forecast of a coming food shock, driven by a confluence of geopolitical, energy, and climate-related pressures. The hosts, Rowan Hooper and reporter Michael LePage, invite Paul Behrens from the Oxford Martin School to discuss how the food system is entangled with fossil fuels, fertilizers, pesticides, and the weather. The conversation acknowledges the gravity of the situation but emphasizes that identifying levers and implementing changes can reduce risk and place the world on a more resilient trajectory.

The Food System’s Dependence on Fossil Fuels

A central theme is the heavy energy footprint of modern agriculture. The speakers note that roughly 15% of fossil fuels extracted globally end up in the food system, serving as fuel for transport and as inputs for producing nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides. Nitrogen fertilizers are particularly critical; nitrogen is often produced by turning natural gas into hydrogen, then synthesizing ammonia. Much of the world’s urea fertilizer comes from Gulf producers, with around 50% of urea sold on international markets, making fertilizer prices highly sensitive to regional disruptions.

Beyond nitrogen, sulfuric acid needed to process phosphate rocks and sulfur inputs for fertilizers also originate in Gulf regions, creating a tightly knit chain that is vulnerable to war, sanctions, and supply interruptions. The panel discusses how supply chain fragility has become more apparent as war-related disruptions unfold, with delays and price volatility affecting farmers and consumers worldwide.

Domino Effects: Fertilizers, Pesticides and Food Prices

The discussion elaborates how fertilizer disruptions could trigger a 20-30% rise in global food prices if shocks persist long enough. Fertilizers are not the only inputs; refined fuels, diesel for transport, and packaging materials all rely on fossil fuels. Pesticides, which depend on naphtha derived largely from Gulf inputs and, in some cases, Russia via ports, face price increases as well. The combination of fertilizer and pesticide price shocks could produce cascading effects across agricultural systems, potentially reducing yields and altering pest pressures in ways that further complicate food security.

Climate Change, El Niño and Food Security

The podcast situates the crisis within broader climate dynamics. As El Niño develops, southern Europe may face hotter and drier conditions that could affect fresh fruit and vegetables imported by the UK, increasing vulnerability in breadbasket regions. The guests remind listeners that climate shocks do not act in isolation; they compound geopolitical and supply-chain vulnerabilities, heightening the risk of price spikes and social instability in low- and middle-income countries that spend a large share of income on food.

Biofuels: A Double-Edged Sword

A critical portion of the discussion centers on biofuels. Policies and subsidies in the United States and elsewhere promote turning crops into fuels as a means of meeting climate targets, but the speakers argue this can intensify food-price pressures when food supplies tighten globally. The episode draws on historical context from the 2007-2008 biofuel-driven food crisis, which spurred protests and unrest in various countries and underscores the complexity of balancing energy, climate goals, and food security. The environmental accounting of biofuels is also called into question, with studies suggesting limited emissions reductions in some cases, and significant land-use implications that can exacerbate biodiversity loss if forests or high-carbon ecosystems are cleared for biofuel crops.

Dietary Shifts and Agricultural Innovation as Solutions

The guests highlight practical strategies to reduce vulnerability and build resilience. Intercropping cereals with legumes can increase nitrogen availability naturally, reducing fertilizer inputs and dampening price volatility. A shift toward plant-forward diets in high-income countries could lower demand for animal-derived foods, freeing land for crops and restoration, thereby reducing emissions and increasing resilience of food systems. The Danish plant-rich procurement model is cited as a successful policy blueprint: government demand certainty helps farmers transition to intercropping and other sustainable practices, while local and organic sourcing supports resilience and regional food security.

Land Use, Biodiversity and National Security

Addressing the biodiversity crisis and land-use pressures, the speakers argue that reducing the footprint of animal agriculture can free land for biodiversity and climate resilience. They present a scenario where high-income nations adopt a plant-forward diet with occasional beef and poultry consumption, which could free land the size of the European Union and allow restoration and food production for local needs. The conversation also touches on national security implications: heavy reliance on global, just-in-time import networks can become a strategic vulnerability in times of crisis. A more resilient system would emphasize local buffers, diversified supply chains, and secure demand for farmers through stable procurement policies.

Policy Recommendations and Practical Steps

The experts propose several policy instruments and pragmatic steps to curb the looming crisis. Key recommendations include: breaking the link between fossil fuels and farming inputs by expanding renewable electricity for fertilizer production and implementing energy-efficient nitrogen use; investing in farming systems that increase efficiency and resilience; promoting plant-based dietary patterns backed by public procurement; and building community-level food resilience structures such as local food boards. They emphasize the importance of a just-in-case approach to food security, with strategic stockpiles and buffers to compensate for potential supply disruptions.

Silver Linings and Future Outlook

Despite the gravity, the discussion casts the crisis as an opportunity to accelerate lasting changes in farming and energy systems. If policy measures and consumer behavior align, the world could reduce its vulnerability to fossil-fuel dependence, improve biodiversity, and deliver economic benefits to public health and the economy. The speakers advocate for a broader, coordinated approach that treats food security as a cross-cutting national security issue, requiring leadership across health, environment, agriculture, and energy domains. The overarching message is that the world effectively eats fossil fuels, and recognizing this is the first step toward meaningful reform that benefits climate, biodiversity, and human well-being.

Conclusion

The program ends with a call to action for governments, farmers, and citizens to embrace a systemic rethinking of the food system. The potential gains—green space, cleaner air and water, healthier diets, and reduced emissions—are positioned as worth pursuing not only for climate and biodiversity but for national security and social stability in a world facing multiple converging shocks.