Could the Middle East conflict speed up the renewable energy transition? An analysis from New Scientist

Episode snapshot

The World, The Universe And Us examines whether a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East could hasten the move to renewable energy. The episode discusses how disruptions in oil and LNG markets, notably via the Strait of Hormuz, raise prices and threaten energy security, potentially accelerating investments in solar, wind, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

Experts from industry and policy circles weigh in on how this shock compares to the Ukraine crisis, the regional differences across Asia, and the role of nuclear power. While not an instant transformation, the discussion frames renewables as a more secure and cost-effective option in a volatile energy landscape.

Introduction and premise

The New Scientist program The World, The Universe And Us discusses whether current Middle East tensions and actions by the United States and Israel could accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels. The host notes that the Strait of Hormuz has become a flashpoint for oil and seaborne gas, raising prices and prompting a reassessment of energy security and dependencies.

Alec Loon, the climate reporter, draws a parallel with the Ukraine crisis, where Europe pivoted toward renewables after an energy shock. He outlines how the Ukraine crisis led to a marked acceleration in renewables in Europe, including surges in solar and wind capacity, and asks whether a broader and more persistent shock could produce a similar or larger effect globally, especially in Asia.

Historical context: Ukraine as a precedent

The discussion recaps that Russia weaponized natural gas during the Ukraine conflict, prompting Europe to diversify its energy mix. The EU and the UK significantly expanded solar and wind capacity, setting a precedent for rapid policy and market shifts toward renewables when fossil supply is disrupted.

Alec interviews Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James, who argues that Asia’s wake-up call will push for more renewables within electricity mixes, given the vulnerabilities of fossil fuels to disruption and policy-driven changes by governments and utilities. He also highlights that the transition is likely to strengthen demand for electric vehicles as fossil fuel volatility pushes consumers toward cleaner transport options.

Current global responses and regional differences

The program notes that smaller countries are showing varying levels of pivot toward renewables. South Korea is fast-tracking renewable projects and grid connections, while India’s Modi emphasizes solar and a reduced dependence on foreign oil given the Hormuz-related disruptions. Antonio Guterres’s UN leadership is invoked to frame renewables as an energy security issue, with Sunlight and wind not subject to price spikes or embargoes.

We hear from Sam Butler Sloss of Ember Energy Transition think tank, who argues the Iran crisis will accelerate the energy transition by increasing the cost of fossil substitutes and demonstrating the geographic ubiquity of solar and wind resources. Electrification is presented as a path to secure, cheap electrons that can power entire economies even in the face of geopolitically precarious energy imports.

Oil, gas, and the strategic angle

Analysts distinguish between oil price shocks and gas price shocks. Oil is globally fungible and impacts almost all regions, while LNG is more sensitive to regional delivery and pipeline configurations. The potential for new pipelines around the Hormuz chokepoint is discussed, but such infrastructure will bear heavy capital costs and likely translate into higher consumer prices in the near term, reinforcing the economics of renewables.

The conversation also delves into nuclear energy as a buffer: some countries are reopening reactors or increasing reactor utilization, while new build-out would take decades. The panel also considers China’s dual track of expanding solar and wind while maintaining fossil fuel use for growth, alongside coal and potential gas imports. They suggest a near-term risk of higher emissions due to coal use in the short term, even as renewables accelerate longer term.

Implications for policy and consumer behavior

The panel notes that the energy transition is unlikely to be instantaneous, with vehicles and infrastructure turning over over 18–20 years. However, higher prices at the pump could accelerate EV adoption, and political statements from various leaders—including Modi and Keir Starmer—signal a broad shift toward renewables as part of energy security strategies.

In sum, the program frames the current crisis as a potential catalyst for a faster transition to renewable energy globally, while acknowledging short-term disruptions and country-specific dynamics. The overarching takeaway is that the costs and vulnerabilities of fossil fuels are driving policy, investment, and consumer choices toward cleaner, more secure energy systems.