Could a Super El Niño Hit This Year? Understanding Mega El Niño and Climate Change Amplified Impacts

World, the Universe and Us explains El Niño, the potential for a Super El Niño later this year, how scientists measure it, and why climate change could magnify its weather impacts across the globe. The discussion covers what to expect from regional rainfall, droughts, and heat, and why forecasts remain uncertain during early spring while models tighten later in the year.

• El Niño is defined by warmer Central Pacific temperatures and weaker trade winds.
• A potential Mega or Super El Niño could push global temperatures higher for about a year to two years.
• Impacts vary by region, from wetter southern US to hotter, drier conditions in Europe and other areas.
• Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, intensifying floods, droughts and heatwaves.

Introduction and context

This episode of World, the Universe and Us discusses El Niño as a natural climate pattern, how models are signaling a potentially very strong phase this year, and the possible consequences for global weather and temperatures in the context of a warming world. The hosts speak with Alec Loon, a climate reporter, and reference insights from forecasters at the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

What is El Niño?

El Niño occurs when trade winds in the tropical Pacific weaken, allowing warm water to slosh eastward toward South America. The resulting warm surface waters suppress upwelling of cooler water and heat the atmosphere, shifting weather patterns worldwide. As Alec Loon explains, the strength of El Niño is measured by how much hotter the Central Pacific is than the long-term average. A 0.5°C anomaly marks a standard El Niño, while a much larger anomaly signals a super El Niño. The term Godzilla El Niño has been used informally to emphasize the severity of the event in headlines and discussions.

"El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It's a phase where a lot of warm water, basically the winds, the trade winds that blow east to west in the Pacific Ocean, they slow down and a lot of warm water sloshes back across the Pacific Ocean from Indonesia towards South America. And that warm water, there's less cold water being upwelled. And so that warm water just sits there and heats up the atmosphere, heats up the whole planet, and causes a lot of crazy weather around the globe" - Alec Loon

Forecasts and magnitude

Forecasts suggest the tropical Pacific is warming faster than at any other time this century, raising the possibility of a Super El Niño. If a strong El Niño materializes, global temperatures could rise by about an additional 0.2°C, albeit temporarily. The period of strongest El Niño typically lasts a year and a half to two years. Spring is known as a predictability barrier, meaning early forecasts carry more uncertainty until May and June when models tend to converge.

"The forecast from now is warming faster in the tropical Pacific than at any other time so far this century" - Adam Scaife, Met Office

Historical context and uncertainties

The last El Niño years (2023-2024) coincided with the hottest year on record in 2024, followed by a La Niña cooling phase. Yet 2025 remained among the hottest years on record despite that cooling, and the current trajectory points toward another record in the presence of an upcoming El Niño. The discussion also notes how El Niño interacts with other climate oscillations, making regional outcomes highly variable, including possible thrills and risks for Europe, the UK, and other regions.

Impacts by region and sectors

Impacts of El Niño are highly region-specific. In the US, the southern states may experience wetter and stormier conditions, whereas the northern US could face hotter and drier weather. China and parts of Asia may see increased rainfall, while Australia and parts of Africa and the Amazon could face heat and drought. European impacts are the most complex, with potential for hotter summers and milder, wetter winters depending on interactions with other climatic cycles.

"We call it an intensification of the hydrological cycle" - Tim Stockdale, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Climate change and risk amplification

Experts stress that El Niño’s impacts will be worsened by climate change because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and drive more extreme precipitation, while soils can become drier, amplifying droughts and heatwaves. There is an ongoing scientific debate about whether El Niño events are becoming more frequent or intense due to natural variability versus human-caused climate change. The consensus is that climate change acts as a risk multiplier for El Niño's effects, which is precisely why forecasts and adaptation planning are increasingly important.

"The impacts of El Niño are going to be worsened by climate change" - Alec Loon

What should we do?

The program highlights the need for policy messaging and personal preparedness, including considerations for agriculture, water resources, and food security. As with many climate-related events, mitigation and adaptation strategies will hinge on early forecasting, clear risk communication, and robust planning at national and local levels.