Uncertainty as a Signal: Maggie Jackson on Embracing Uncertainty in a World of Volatility

Episode snapshot

In this episode of Psych Crunch, Maggie Jackson, journalist and author of Uncertain, explores how uncertainty drives curiosity, learning, and resilience rather than simply inducing fear. She distinguishes two kinds of uncertainty—the unknown and epistemic uncertainty about our knowledge—and explains how intolerance of uncertainty shapes our responses in crises, from denial during pandemics to risk-taking in leadership. The conversation also highlights adaptive expertise, the ability to know when to pause and be unsure, a trait observed in surgeons and leaders alike. Jackson concludes with ideas for education, social discourse, and personal coping strategies to live more thoughtfully amid life’s unknowns.

Introduction: embracing uncertainty as a tool

The episode opens with Maggie Jackson describing how uncertainty has become a central feature of modern life and how her work reframes uncertainty from a hindrance into a driver of curiosity and adaptive thinking. She emphasizes the distinction between two major forms of uncertainty: the truly unknown external events and the epistemic uncertainty that arises from our own knowledge limits. This framing helps shift the conversation from fear to skillful engagement with the unknown.

"I began to think of uncertainty as a gadfly of the mind or a provocateur" - Maggie Jackson

Two kinds of uncertainty and why they matter

Jackson explains that even with mathematical models, we cannot predict all outcomes, but our psychological response to novelty and ambiguity—psychological uncertainty—shapes behavior. She defines uncertainty as meta-cognitive recognition of what we don’t know, a state that can spur creativity, deliberation in crises, and tolerance for contradictory perspectives. This reframing positions uncertainty as a strategic tool rather than an inherent weakness.

"recognition that you've reached the limits of your knowledge" - Maggie Jackson

Intolerance of uncertainty and real-world responses

The discussion turns to intolerance of uncertainty as a personality trait that modulates behavior during crises. Studies show that high intolerance correlates with denial and avoidance, while those with higher tolerance view uncertainty as a challenge. The trait is situational, sensitive to time pressure and fatigue, underscoring that everyone’s tolerance can shift under stress.

"un intolerance of uncertainty... during the pandemic" - Maggie Jackson

Adaptive expertise in high-stakes settings

A central theme is adaptive expertise—the capacity to know when to slow down, ask questions, and adjust in uncertain situations. Jackson discusses Caro Anne Moulton’s work in surgery, where experts spend more time diagnosing new problems and deliberately pause to avoid autopilot. This contrasts with routine expertise, which can crumble when faced with novel challenges.

"adaptive expertise... they are the people who know when and how to be unsure" - Maggie Jackson

Leadership, education, and social implications

The episode moves to implications for organizations and education. A longitudinal CEO study found ambivalent leaders—those who uncertainty about outcomes—tended to perform best because they welcomed multiple perspectives, stayed inventive, and avoided inertia. Jackson argues that uncertainty can foster collaboration and reduce prejudice when managed through perspective-taking and constructive dissent. She also highlights the benefits for education, suggesting curricula that embrace uncertainty to cultivate scientific thinking and resilience.

"ambivalent CEOs were more inclusive... more inventive and resourceful" - Maggie Jackson

PersonalTakeaways

Concluding, Jackson reflects on how researching uncertainty has changed her own coping style, shifting from a preference for quick solutions to supporting others in sitting with uncertainty to find their own paths. The conversation ends with a hopeful note: uncertainty can be a signal to stay curious and engaged with the world, improving our decision-making and social understanding.

"disagreement is an antidote to that kind of complacency of agreement, to groupthink" - Maggie Jackson