Tropical Weather Dynamics: Humidity, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and Global Forecast Equity

The episode centers tropical meteorologist Anhel’s work to explain why the tropics behave so differently from mid-latitudes, with a focus on humidity, water vapor, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It traces how WWII-era findings reshaped tropical weather knowledge, why current forecasting lags in tropical regions, and how researchers seek more representative, accurate forecasts for everyone, especially communities in the tropics such as Puerto Rico affected by hurricanes like George and Maria.

Introduction and Personal Journey

In this episode, the conversation with tropical meteorologist Anhel unpacks how growing up in Puerto Rico amid hurricanes shaped a career dedicated to understanding tropical weather. Anhel recalls Hurricane George in 1998 and Hurricane Maria in 2017 as pivotal experiences that deepened his resolve to tell people what matters about tropical climate and weather dynamics. He emphasizes a mission to bring tropical weather knowledge back to tropical communities and to improve forecasts for all regions that share the tropics’ unique atmospheric behavior.

"Humidity and water vapor are the big driving forces behind tropical weather" - Angel Anhel, Tropical Meteorologist

Mid-Latitude Focus vs Tropical Realities

The discussion highlights how most weather research historically concentrated in mid-latitude, wealthier nations, leaving tropical dynamics underexplored. Anhel explains the core differences: while mid-latitude weather relies on geostrophic balance and jet-stream-driven variability, the tropics stay warm year-round and are dominated by moisture, humidity, and convective systems rather than temperature swings. This imbalance in research focus has practical consequences for forecast accuracy and resilience in tropical regions.

"The tropics are different from the mid-latitudes because it's all about moisture" - Angel Anhel, Tropical Meteorologist

The MJO and Its Global Reach

The Madden-Julian Oscillation emerges as a centerpiece in Anhel’s work. The MJO is a vast tropical convective system whose moisture, rain, and winds feed back on each other, propagating across the Indian Ocean and influencing weather worldwide. Anhel describes how MJO activity modulates hurricane intensity, rainfall patterns, and even mid-latitude weather events such as floods in far-away basins, illustrating the global reach of tropical processes.

"The tropics are a global reactor that affects weather well beyond their boundaries" - Angel Anhel, Tropical Meteorologist

Research Gaps and a Vision for Equity

The conversation turns to the absence of a comprehensive tropical dynamical theory comparable to mid-latitude models, which complicates forecasting. Anhel argues for a future where climate reports and forecasts equally represent tropical regions, ensuring that communities anywhere can access accurate, actionable weather information. He envisions a platform where tropical meteorology benefits everyone, not just researchers in temperate zones.

"Everyone deserves to have the best possible weather forecast, no matter where you live" - Angel Anhel, Tropical Meteorologist