The Science of Luck: Psychology, Probability, and How to Train Yourself to Be Luckier

This episode of Curious Cases delves into what luck really is, tracing its different forms—from existential and constitutive luck to circumstantial and outcome luck—and how our beliefs shape our experiences. Through expert interviews and experiments, the show examines whether some people are naturally luckier and whether luck can be trained. Key insights include the idea that belief in luck affects persistence and openness to opportunities, and simple interventions like keeping a luck diary can alter how we perceive and seize chances. The discussion also highlights the cognitive bias of apophenia, the role of perception in luck, and real-world anecdotes such as the unluckiest TV participant and coin-flipping demonstrations.

Overview: What is Luck?

The episode sets out a practical, psychology-informed view of luck, defining it as seemingly chance events that end up favoring or disadvantaging us. Guest perspectives emphasize that luck is not a mystical force but a collection of probabilistic experiences shaped by perception and behavior. The conversation distinguishes existential luck (being here at all), constitutive luck (the genetic and social start you’re handed), circumstantial luck (being in the right place at the right time), and outcome luck (how events unfold as a consequence). These categories frame how participants think about their own lives, from the boomer generation’s favorable conditions to the unpredictable twists of one’s fortune.

"luck being a seemingly chance events that work out in your favour" - Richard Wiseman, Professor of Public Understanding of Psychology

We meet researchers who study luck's impact on daily life and evaluate whether individuals can alter their luck. Richard Wiseman outlines how a belief in luck correlates with behaviors that increase opportunities, while Maya Young’s research from UC Irvine shows that people who identify as lucky are more likely to persist through early failures and engage in deliberate, goal-oriented actions. The episode also covers how luck beliefs can foster resilience, persistence, and a readiness to explore new paths, even after setbacks.

"I like to persist even when I don't get positive feedback at first" - Maya Young, UC Irvine

The Psychology of Perceived Luck

The program examines how subjective beliefs influence objective outcomes. It highlights evidence that people who see themselves as lucky are more alert to opportunities, more adaptable, and more likely to interpret daily events as meaningful. Conversely, those who feel unlucky can become socially isolated, reducing access to supportive networks that foster resilience. The discussion cites a statistic: about 12% of the population consider themselves exceptionally lucky, while around 9% view themselves as exceptionally unlucky, suggesting systematic differences in mindset and life experiences.

"keeping a luck diary" - Richard Wiseman

Several experiments illustrate how perception shapes reality. A classic coin-flip demonstration shows that people’s uncertainty about randomness is influenced by belief. The show also presents Luck School, a program designed to shift thinking and behavior so that individuals notice more opportunities and respond more flexibly to change. The practical takeaway is that luck is not purely random; people can cultivate habits that increase their exposure to favourable outcomes.

Practical Implications: How to Train Your Luck

The discussion moves from theory to application. Wiseman argues that small, incremental interventions—like journaling daily luck moments or reframing challenges as opportunities—can rewire thought patterns and behaviors. The idea is to create a feedback loop: noticing opportunities leads to more successful encounters, which reinforces a positive self-concept of being lucky. The show also explores the possible value and limits of such training, acknowledging real-world constraints like social and economic context while emphasizing that mindset is a powerful determinant of how we respond to events.

The episode includes anecdotes such as the unluckiest man on British television, whose experiences underscore that luck is partly about interpretation and willingness to try new things. Overall, the takeaway is clear: while we cannot control every event, we can influence how we perceive and act on them, shaping our personal luck through deliberate practice and an open, proactive stance toward opportunity.

"luck is not a magical external force, but something we apply to stuff that happened" - David Spielhauser, Emeritus Professor of Statistics