Iran's Lake Ermia and the Global Water Bankruptcy: Groundwater, Drought, and Desalination

Guardian Science Weekly investigates Iran's drought-stricken water landscape, focusing on Lake Ermia's dramatic shrinkage from turquoise expanse to salt desert. The episode connects Urmia's fate to a broader global crisis described by the UN as a 'water bankruptcy,' where freshwater is being withdrawn faster than it can be replenished. Reporting from Tehran, Guardian's Patrick Wintour details severe drought, rising water stress, and subsidence from over-pumping groundwater, while Mohammad Sham Suduha of University College London explains how agriculture dominates water use and why governance matters. The program outlines practical steps—from rainwater harvesting and desalination to wetlands restoration and smarter data collection—that could help reverse depletion if acted upon.

Lake Ermia: From turquoise waters to salt desert

The episode opens with a reminder that Lake Ermia, once one of the Middle East's natural wonders and a major tourist draw, has devolved into a much smaller, increasingly desiccated landscape. The Guardian's Tehran-based reporting team, including diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, describes how the turquoise waters that defined the lake's beauty have receded over decades. The present scene is stark: a salt desert where once-thriving wetlands and flocks of migratory birds depended on a steady water supply. The narration emphasizes that Ermia's decline is not just environmental tragedy but a signal about governance, extraction, and climate pressures that shape water availability across the region. The discussion ties the local crisis to broader trends in water management and the global consequences of misallocated resources, illustrating how decisions in one place ripple outward. In Tehran, where drought has persisted for five years, the everyday reality of water scarcity is seen in parched parks, low water pressure in high-rise apartments, and the fragility of urban infrastructure. A key point is that even in the face of drought, the prospects for recovery depend on policy choices as much as on rainfall, and that the Urmia story is part of a wider pattern of water stress around the world.

"It's just slowly but steadily evaporated and the pictures of it becoming smaller and smaller are totally tragic." - Patrick Wintour, Guardian's diplomatic editor

Global context: Water bankruptcy and growing demand

The podcast then situates Ermia within a global frame, citing a United Nations University report that the world has entered an era of water bankruptcy. The discussion highlights that freshwater withdrawals are heavily skewed toward agriculture, with roughly 70% used for irrigation, about 20% for industry and energy, and around 10% for domestic use. These figures underscore how food production and economic activity can intensify water stress, particularly in regions with rapid population growth and climate volatility. The episode also references a US think tank, the Pacific Institute, noting that water-related violence has nearly doubled since 2022, illustrating how water scarcity can become a catalyst for social and political instability. The presenter emphasizes that the issue is not merely environmental but deeply entwined with governance, policy, and investment in infrastructure that supports sustainable water use. A central takeaway is that the crisis is both local and global, demanding coordinated action across scales and sectors.

"70% of the world's freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, mainly for irrigated food production, and then we need water for industry, energy production. That accounts for roughly 20%, I would say, and then domestic water use makes up about 10%" - Mohammad Sham Suduha, Professor of Water Crisis and Risk Reduction, University College London

Iran's drought: Tehran, groundwater, and social strain

The narrative then moves to Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, grappling with a five-year drought. The reporting is stark: rainfall during the period was minimal, water pressure in reservoirs is low, and several reservoirs that once supplied major cities are now below functional levels. Agricultural regions outside the big cities face acute water scarcity, while groundwater is being pumped at unsustainable rates. The episode explains that groundwater depletion is not simply an environmental concern; it has direct implications for health, living conditions, and social stability. The discussion outlines the economic and political dynamics that accompany water shortages, including sanctions and governance challenges, and how these forces shape the public's perception of and response to water policy. The segment emphasizes that while climate change compounds water stress, the root causes are managed by policy choices, governance structures, and investment in water infrastructure that can either mitigate or aggravate the crisis.

"There is a multiplicity of reasons why there are water shortages. There isn't a single person in charge of it all, and there's a sense of dead end when the government seems unable to regain control." - (narrative summary from the podcast, attributed to contextual analysis by the host and guest experts)

Paths forward: governance, data, and unconventional water supplies

The episode closes with a discussion of possible solutions, ranging from policy reform and long-term governance reforms to practical measures like rainwater harvesting, desalination, and wetland restoration. The guests emphasize the interconnectedness of surface water and groundwater and the need for better data and monitoring to inform decisions in the face of climate variability. They stress that aquifer recharge can occur when surface water is abundant, and that nature-based solutions—such as restoring wetlands and protecting watersheds—play a critical role in maintaining resilient water systems. The guests argue that with bold policy and sustained public investment, it is possible to reverse depletion trends, citing recent research that used groundwater data from around the world to show that recovery is feasible when the right actions are taken.

"With policy, with action, we can reverse the situation." - Mohammad Sham Suduha, Professor of Water Crisis and Risk Reduction, University College London

Hope, action, and the role of science

The final reflection is one of cautious optimism. The episode points to science as a critical driver of recovery, noting that recent studies demonstrate rapid but reversible groundwater depletion in some regions when policy measures are implemented. The takeaway is that the world can learn from the Urmia experience and apply those lessons to other water-stressed regions. The message is clear: water is a finite resource, but with transparent data, smart governance, and strategic investments in infrastructure and nature-based solutions, it is possible to safeguard water supplies for current and future generations.

Concluding note

The episode concludes with an acknowledgment that global water challenges require collective action and sustained commitment from policymakers, researchers, and communities. By connecting a regional crisis to a global warning, the program emphasizes that the fate of Lake Ermia is a proxy for a broader reality: without deliberate stewardship, rising demand and climate pressures will continue to strain water resources around the world. The optimism rests on the belief that science and policy can align to protect this essential resource for livelihoods, health, and ecosystems.