El Niño 2026: Coral records reveal human fingerprint on intensifying Pacific warming

The episode explains that this year’s El Niño is stronger than any data previously available, with forecasts predicting a record breaking peak in the coming year. Climate scientist Julia Cole discusses a novel approach using geochemical coral records from the Galapagos to assess whether human activity is leaving a fingerprint on El Niño and La Niña variability. The discussion covers how stronger El Niños can drive more extreme rainfall, floods, droughts, and heat, including current impacts in the Pacific region and Hawaii, and the potential for record global temperatures in 2026 and 2027. Practical advice on local adaptation is offered, illustrating how communities can prepare for floods, heat, and wildfires while addressing root causes of climate change.

Overview

The podcast examines the current El Niño event, described as exceptionally strong and still strengthening, with scientists warning it could be a record breaker. The host Nate Rott sits down with Julia Cole, a climate scientist and chair at the University of Michigan, who explains why El Niño variability is difficult to attribute to human activity and how a new coral based temperature reconstruction from the Galapagos provides a clearer signal. The discussion places El Niño in the broader context of a warming world where climate change can intensify the frequency and severity of climate extremes, amplifying risks to people and ecosystems across the globe.

El Niño science and coral records

The core of the analysis rests on two types of Galapagos corals: living corals that can be cored to extract chemical signals, and fossil corals washed ashore that can be radiometrically dated to extend temperature histories month by month. By comparing coral chemistry with modern ocean temperatures, the researchers reconstruct a long term history of eastern Pacific variability. The data show that the amplitude of warm events in the last 40 to 50 years has increased by about 36 percent compared with pre industrial times, indicating that El Niño events are intensifying. The pattern aligns with global temperature rises, suggesting a human fingerprint on El Niño related warming.

Human fingerprints on El Niño

The analyst explains that El Niño and La Niña are natural climate phenomena with substantial internal variability, making long term trends challenging to detect. The coral records provide a more direct long term temperature history than satellite records which only extend back to the early 1980s. When the coral based history is plotted alongside global temperature trends, the similarity is striking, resembling a hockey stick that separates the pre industrial era from today. The takeaway is not that every El Niño will be stronger than the last, but that the background warming from human activities is amplifying the intensity of El Niño events.

Implications for weather and climate risk

With a warming world, stronger El Niño events are expected to increase the risks of floods, droughts, and temperature swings. The podcast notes that tropical storms are already affecting Hawaii, Indonesia experiences severe drought and wildfire, and air quality deteriorates across large regions. The conversation emphasizes that the strongest El Niño years are the moments that typically cause the most coral bleaching and ecosystem stress, and in a more variable climate, such events may arrive more frequently and with less time for recovery. The researchers caution against over predicting a linear intensification of each event, but warn that the aggregate risk will grow.

Adaptation and policy responses

The guests stress that adaptation must be local and contextual. Examples include clearing culverts to reduce flood risk, strengthening homes against heat and wildfire, and enforcing burn restrictions during hot periods. While adaptation helps, it cannot fully offset the root cause of climate change, which the episode links to fossil fuel emissions and rising global temperatures. The discussion also touches on the potential for El Niño to push global temperatures to new records in 2026 and 2027, underscoring the urgency of mitigation alongside adaptation.

What listeners can take away

The show closes with a call to understand local vulnerabilities and act on root causes of climate change. The coral based evidence provides a clearer connection between anthropogenic warming and El Niño intensity, reinforcing the need for both robust climate policies and community level resilience measures.