2025 Climate Outlook: Second-Hottest Year on Record, New Mpox Strain in the UK, Neonatal Vitamin K Injections Under Scrutiny, and Hobbit Climate Link

In this Science Quickly episode, Scientific American probes the 2025 climate outlook with the Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting 2025 may become the second hottest year on record, alongside continuing impacts of heat waves and climate extremes. The segment also covers health news, including a UK Mpox outbreak featuring a novel strain and uncertainty about vaccine protection, and a JAMA study showing rising numbers of newborns missing the vitamin K injection at birth, with doctors exploring why parents refuse and what the risks are. The episode closes with a discussion of Homo floresiensis, long-lived hobbits whose disappearance may be linked to a severe drought and shifting resources, highlighting climate’s role in historical human context.

Climate Update

The episode begins with a focus on climate data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service indicating 2025 is on track to be the second hottest year on record, with global temperatures around 1.48 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of November. The discussion notes 2024 breached 1.5 °C, and points out that the ten hottest years have occurred in the last decade, signaling the strong influence of greenhouse gas emissions on global average temperatures. A key takeaway is that the path we choose—particularly emissions reductions and fossil fuel use—will determine whether records continue to be broken or if the trajectory stabilizes. The segment emphasizes heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and other climate extremes as fingerprints of change, with cascading effects on agriculture and ecosystems.

"The weather we continue to break these records and by how much is entirely a matter of the path we choose." - Andrea Thompson

Mpox Update

In health news, the UK Health Security Agency reports a new Mpox strain detected in an individual who traveled abroad. Mpox features clades with varying severity, and the current outbreak is largely driven by clade 2B, though the new England strain contains elements of clade 2B and clade 1B. The World Health Organization tracks roughly 48,000 confirmed Mpox cases globally in 2025 so far, and vaccine effectiveness sits around 75-80% against infection. Researchers describe uncertainty about how the new strain might alter transmission or vaccine protection, underscoring the evolving landscape of mpox control.

"The new strain identified in England contains elements of clade 2B and clade 1B." - UK Health Security Agency

Vitamin K in Newborns

A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association reports that between 2017 and 2024 the share of newborns not receiving a vitamin K injection rose from about 3% to over 5%. Vitamin K is essential for blood clotting, and the standard neonatal practice has reduced the risk of vitamin K deficiency bleeding. The report discusses reasons families may refuse the shot, including misperceptions about risks versus benefits or a preference for natural approaches, while noting that oral vitamin K is not as well absorbed and injections remain recommended. Pediatric perspectives provide context on patient safety and decision-making in neonatal care.

"these parents may have the misperception that the risks are greater than the benefits or may want to go a more quote unquote natural route when it comes to child rearing." - Jaspreet Loyal, Yale New Haven Children's Hospital

Hobbit Climate Link

The final segment revisits Homo floresiensis, the island hobbits whose disappearance around 50,000 years ago has puzzled scientists. Researchers reconstructed past climate and rainfall using stalagmites from Liang Bua cave and analyzed fossilized pygmy-elephants to infer resource scarcity. The analysis suggests a severe drought reduced river water and food sources, potentially forcing hobbits to leave the cave and possibly meet modern humans. Lead author Mike Geagan frames climate change as a possible stage-setter for this ancient encounter, illustrating how environmental shifts can shape human history.

"it's possible that as the hobbits moved in search of water and prey, they encountered modern humans. In that sense, climate change may have set the stage for their final disappearance." - Mike Geagan, lead author

Closing

The episode concludes with a tease for a Wednesday interview about orca research in the Pacific Northwest and credits for the production team, underscoring Scientific American’s ongoing coverage of climate, health, and biology topics.